Monthly Archives: July 2012

Commodity Trader Note: Buy Gold, Crude; Sell Wheat – 07/30/2012

Gold: Our Commodity Trader model signaled a buy signal for Gold on the July 25th. The precious metal is up +1.94% since then. 1,570-1,600 range continues to be a key support level. We expect a rally in Gold until 1,700 in the coming weeks (maybe days as this week is a critical Central Banks-week). If more quantitative easing or asset purchase programs are announced, this will positively affect Gold prices upwards. 1,700 is a key level for a long-term bull trend, which would confirm further upside.

Crude Oil: Our Commodity Trader model signaled a buy signal for Crude Oil on July 30th (today). Crude oil has been establishing a small triangle formation recently. A relative underperformer of the generic recent commodity rally, crude may target $100 in the coming days. Both geographical tensions in the Middle East and Central Banks’ potential moves for further easing will accelerate this move. $87 is a key support (or stop for aggressive traders).

Wheat: Our Commodity Trader model signaled a sell signal for Wheat on July 19th. Due to drought weather conditions, the recent rally in grains’ prices has been very significant which has very positively affected wheat. However, wheat in general is more resistant to dry weather conditions than, for example, corn in nature. This factor was already reflected in the price short after the rally with a little pull-back. We expect a further decline in wheat prices in the coming days, targeting $840-$860 level as the first step. For all-grain-traders/funds our recommendation is to stay long in soybean.

For real-time signals of these and other commodities download Commodity Trader for the iPad now from iTunes AppStore now!

 

Arbitrage Trader Note 07/25/2012

IS IT TIME TO BUY SPX DESPITE THE BAD NEWS?
As our clients have followed, our arbitrage model forecast for the generic market has been all bullish between July 13th and July 22nd. On July 22nd, we signaled a “sell” as soon as numbers came from the Asian markets. However, the same day, our model started to signal “buy” at around 11:00am EST while S&P was trading lower at 1,339s. Now, our arbitrage model signals an upward trend for the coming 7 trading days (until August 2nd):

  • Statistical arbitrage now recommends “buy”. Our market model algorithm now indicates an upwards move in the market direction for at least the next 7 trading days. However, beyond that point, starting on August 2nd (remember last year?), we expect a fairly strong sell-off at this point in time. So, we recommend our clients to remain cautious.
  • Technically, we may still see some selling pressure in S&P500 down to 1,330 and even maybe further to 1,292. However, the last two sessions’ rallies towards the market closes support our current short-term bullish view. On the upside, we see 1,390 as a key resistance point. Another key level is of course 1,422, the highest level seen earlier this year, even though we do not expect to test that level soon.
  • Buy with these headlines? Yes, EU debt crisis is far from being resolved; Yes, Greece continues to be a problem; Yes, Spain’s bond yields cannot continue at these rates, and YES, EUR/USD, UST 10-Yrs, German Bunds all speak clearly about the seriousness of the problems. Additionally, US earnings are not surprisingly very much on the upside. However, as you all know, a good part of trading success comes from correct timing and patience. While we continue to see a negative macro picture, we also see some potential intervention by central banks and additional solutions on the table. As the markets hesitate to sell, it may be an early decision to sell into this hesitation.

In short, we reiterate our bullish view on the generic market for the coming 7 days.

You can have instant, and regular, access to our arbitrage model short-term forecast with any of the following apps: Stock Arbitrage Trader, Daily Stocks, Stock Signals, and Commodity Trader.

App Updated: Stock Arbitrage Trader 3.5!

Our popular iPad and iPhone application Stock Arbitrage Trader has a new update out and this already powerful app has a lot of new features. The most exciting feature are the new real-time charts, so along with your real-time signals you now get real-time charts, real-time prices, and real-time P/L information. If you want to confirm a signal by checking it’s chart you will no longer have to wait for the end of a trading day to see it’s relevant charting data, the charts auto-refresh and are available intra-day to 10 year. In addition to this the charts have over 40 new technical indicators that are extremely customizable, and by customizable we mean extremely customizable with indicators such as RSI 14 or 120. Whichever value interets you, is what is available within the app.

In addition to the customizable real-time charts the app is easier to navigate with highlights to recent signal changes, has an updated watchlist which will give you the signals for the stocks that you are interested in, making your analysis process as efficient as possible. The Market Pulse page has also received a facelift, in addition to an arbitrage directional forecast you get furtures and market momentum. We really think you’re going to enjoy the effort we’ve put into bringing you a better, easier to use, product. This is a product that is unmatched on the iPad or iPhone and is truly unique as it offers a level of analysis and research that has never been available before on a mobile device. You can upgrade or purchase Stock Arbitrage Trader from the iTunes AppStore and bring real-time charts to your iPhone or iPad now!

Photos of the iPad and iPhone versions of Stock Arbitrage Trader:

Commodity Trader P/L as of 7/11

Want to know if the signals in Commodity Trader actually work? Whether they are accurate and if they are actually worth acting on? Check out the following two screenshots which show the most recent signal and the correlating P/L information.


Of course, making the most the of the signals requires research, great patience, and a good exit strategy. However, it certainly can’t hurt to be ahead of the curve. Download Commodity Trader from the iTunes AppStore now!

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